Projections 2009

The Association of Bay Area Governments is responsible for making long-term forecasts or population, housing, and employment for the nine-county Bay Area. These forecasts assist local governments in planning for our changing environment.

ABAG produces updated forecasts every 2 years and publishes them as Projections. In recent updates, the Projections forecasts have presented a realistic assessment of growth in the region, while recognizing trends in markets and demographics, while also recognizing local policies that promote more compact infill- and transit-oriented development.

This portion of the ABAG website will feature information on ABAG's upcoming Projections 2009. We will feature alternative land use scenarios, impacts analysis, meeting information, schedules, and any Board-related items.

Information about our current forecast can be found at the Projections 2007 webpage.

New for 2009
For Projections 2009, we will do things differently. Specifically, we will use "Performance Targets" to identify environmental, land-use and transportation related impacts of growth. These targets are not mandates; rather, they will provide a measuring stick to see how well we can utilize growth and development to achieve regional transportation, equity, and environmental objectives, including reducing green house gas causing carbon emissions. We will develop multiple land use scenarios, in addition to our traditional forecasts, to test how well we can address and balance these objectives through land use policies.

For more detail, see Performance Targets approved by the ABAG Executive Board May 15, 2008.

Performance Targets

Economy: Congestion

• Reduce person hours of delay by 20 percent below today's levels by 2035

Environment: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Particulate Matter (PM) Emissions

• Reduce CO2 emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2035
• Reduce PM2.5 emissions by 10 percent below today's levels by 2035
• Reduce emissions of coarser particulate mater (PM10) by 45 percent under today's levels by 2035

Environment: Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

• Reduce VMT per capita by 10 percent compared to today by 2035

Environment: Land Consumption

• Limit regional greenfield development to 900 acres per year

Equity: Affordability & Access

• Increase non-automobile dependent access to jobs and essential services by 20 percent compared to today by 2035

Alternative Scenarios
Staff will develop alternative land-use scenarios, each with varying degrees of land use assumptions. We will test these scenarios against the targets to determine how well they perform. Staff will present and the alternatives, their assumptions, and their impact on the targets to local governments and stakeholder groups. Draft scenarios will also be brought before both the Joint Policy Committee and ABAG's Executive Board.

Feedback from local governments and stakeholder groups will also be brought back to the region's Joint Policy Committee and ABAG's Executive Board. One final alternative will be brought to ABAG's Executive Board for its approval as Projections 2009.

For more detail on the schedule for Projections, see Projections 2009 Schedule.