"Assessing the Future"

TABLE OF CONTENTS
        Acknowledgements
        Table of Contents
        List of Tables
        I.      Overview 
        II.     Introduction
        III.    Description of the ABAG Modelling System
                 Regional Information System
                 County Level Forecasts
                 POLIS (Projective Optimization Land use Information System)
                 SAM (Subarea Projection Model)
                 Review and Local Review

        IV.     Sensitivity Analysis of MTC's "Build and No-Build"
                Travel Time Scenarios
                 Assumptions and Initial Data Needs
                 Sensitivity Analysis
                 Did the Shifts have any Statistical Significance?
                 Detail Discussion of Relaxing Land Use
                  Constraints on Job Locational Decisions
                 Statistical Analysis
                 Detailed Discussion of Relaxing Land Use
                  Constraints on Job Location Decisions

        V.      Sensitivity of the POLIS Land Use / Transportation Model
        VI.     Defining "Build" and "No Build" Scenarios in the
                Unconstrained Land Use Simulation
        VII.    Conclusion

        Appendix A: ABAG's Modelling System
        Appendix b: Results of the "Build" and "No Build" Scenatio with the
        Constrained and Uconstrained Land Use Simulation
LIST OF TABLES
        Table 1. Long Term Job Growth: Trends vs. Forecast
        Table 2. Impact of Land Use Constraints on the Distribution
                 of Households in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties
        Table 3. Number of jobs by Corridor in POLIS Simulations
                 in the Year 2010
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