From the San Francisco Chronicle Dec. 16, 1997
JOHN KING
CONTRA COSTA
Still reeling from last week's government forecast that the Bay Area will have nearly 8 million residents in the year 2020? Relax. At least it's not the size of an earlier ``official'' scenario.
Try this on for size: 14.4 million. That number -- more than twice the current population of 6.5 million -- comes from a 1958 study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Among the highlights: predictions that by 2020, Walnut Creek and Lamorinda together would contain 328,000 people, and Concord and Pleasant Hill would have 343,000. As for the Tri-Valley area -- if you think it's crowded now, folks, imagine 720,000 residents.
The moral of the story? Official studies are like weather forecasts: approach with caution.
``The easy thing is take the current trend and carry it forward. But that doesn't always lead you to the right place,'' says Paul Fassinger, research director of the Association of Bay Area Governments, which released ``Projections 98: Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area to the Year 2020.''
If you like number-crunching, the new ABAG report can't be beat for an authoritative look at how the region will change in terms of where people live and work.
The crystal ball shows Contra Costa's population growing to 1.1 million in 2020 from its current level of 880,000. Solano County would go from 355,000 to 540,000, and eastern Alameda County's current population of 155,000 residents would soar to 238,000.
These broad numbers tend to be more accurate than the specific city forecasts, because politics can change and attempts to protect land from development can knock everything around.
For instance, the 1958 study predicted that Martinez by now would have 69,000 residents, 25,000 more than actually are there. One reason for the discrepancy: the army predicted that ``new subdivisions will be scattered . . . between Martinez and Port Costa.'' Instead, much of that area is park land.
``Policies change over time about how people want land to be used,'' Fassinger says.
No kidding. The high point of the 1958 study? A map showing future freeways -- including a direct route from Livermore to San Jose, and a highway that starts in Alamo and passes through Moraga on its way to a southern Bay Bridge.
STOP THE PRESSES: One of downtown Walnut Creek's largest retail buildings is about to get a new tenant -- and it isn't a restaurant.
The distinctive two-story gray building at 1375 North Main Street will be home next spring to Adib's Persian Rugs, a Walnut Creek fixture for 24 years. It takes the place of Virtual World, an odd experiment in cyber-entertainment that went dark last August.
And how is it that the handsome 1909 structure won't be yet another chic eatery? By choice, says owner Marjorie Frederick: ``I had plenty of offers from restaurants, but I've never wanted to deal with food.''
AUTHOR, AUTHOR: If you've ever looked at your pet and felt Fido or Blackie should be immortalized in print, get to work. Tony La Russa's Animal Rescue Foundation is assembling a book called ``Friend For Life'' to be filled with essays about the writers' relationship with their pets. La Russa is lining up several celebrity authors, but the bulk of the contributions will be from regular old pet lovers. If you're interested, send a story to ARF Book Essays, P.O. Box 30215, Walnut Creek, 94598.
NOT THE PITS: Yes, Virginia, there is life in downtown Pittsburg.
Back in September, I wrote a column about Terry MacDonald's ambitious plan to turn an old department store at Railroad Avenue and Fourth Street into live-work apartments and offices. Not what you expect in a district that has struggled for decades.
Well, the gamble is paying off.
The building looks like new with fresh cream paint, columns and new awnings. More to the point, the entire ground floor has been leased, along with three of the five apartments upstairs. Average rent is $1,100 per month.
And even though the project won't be finished until next month, MacDonald must be confident: he's just back from a two- week vacation to Costa Rica.
BLAME IT ON ELVES: Parts of last week's columns were sloppier than a ``Messiah'' sing-along. Mayor Herm Welm of San Ramon knows there is no ``d'' in his name, for starters, and Mayor John Morrill of Brentwood knows he was elected to the post. Finally, my thumbnail description of 49er tight end Brent Jones inadvertently put down Bill Baker: Whatever you think of the former congressman, he certainly is articulate. Sharp-tongued, too, but that's another story.