• Between 1995 and 2020, the San Francisco Bay Area will add about 1.4 million new residents. The economy should generate almost 1.4 million new jobs between 1995 and 2020. Housing production will continue to lag behind demand between 1995 and 2020, despite a production level of approximately 508,000 new households. This is lower than the potential demand for housing, but is generally reflective of local policies.
• New high technology industries will be an important new source of jobs during the forecast period. The character of people’s work and homes will be changed by new computer-based technology. However, traditional sectors of the economy will continue to grow and will provide most of the jobs in the Next Economy.
• Regionally, more jobs will be added to the service sector during the forecast period than any other job sector. It will increase by approximately 690,000 jobs.
• High technology manufacturing’s share of total Bay Area manufacturing employment will remain constant over the period 1995 to 2020. This is a reversal of trends of the last twenty years. This share does not include aerospace manufacturing employment.
• High technology employment will continue to decentralize in the region, with southern Alameda County being the main beneficiary of this trend. However, the decentralization of high technology employment will not be as dramatic as that of office employment.
• Restructuring of high technology manufacturing and the banking industry is nearly complete. Retail and business service restructuring are also ending. During the next ten years, we expect the continued restructuring of the health care industry.
• Housing production, especially of units affordable to moderate and lower income households, and high housing prices remain the most serious constraints to the economic health of the region. High housing prices have the effect of forcing many people to move out of the region and commute to jobs from adjoining counties. Additionally, the persistently high cost of housing will cause high levels of labor force participation, particularly among people in older age groups. It is increasingly difficult for a household to exist in the Bay Area on one income.

County and City Findings

• The North Bay counties of Solano, Sonoma and Napa, as well as the East Bay county of Contra Costa, will consistently constitute the four counties with the highest percentage growth in population, households, and jobs between 1995 and 2020.
• Contra Costa, Santa Clara and Alameda counties will lead the region in numerical population, household and job growth between 1995 and 2020. Population growth in these three counties will account for over 61 percent of the region’s population growth.
• Solano, Napa and Sonoma counties will have the greatest percentage increase in employment between 1995 and 2020. Solano’s employment will jump by 74 percent, followed by Napa with a 69 percent increase and Sonoma with a projected increase of 68 percent.
• Solano County will have the highest rate of population growth between 1995 and 2020, increasing by about 46 percent. The county’s share of the region’s population will increase from about 5.8 percent in 1995 to 7.0 percent by 2020.
• Among the large cities in the region--those having a population of greater than 300,000--San Jose will experience the largest population growth (an additional 216,500 residents). It will also add more jobs than any other city (an additional 174,250).
• Among mid-size cities in the region--those with a 1995 population between 100,000 and 300,000--Santa Rosa will have the largest absolute population growth (an additional 54,100 residents). Santa Rosa will also lead in job growth, adding 51,530 jobs during the 1995 to 2020 period. Fremont will have the second highest number of additional jobs with 46,560.
• Of the cities currently in the 50,000 to 100,000 population category, Fairfield will add the most new residents (57,300). In percentage terms, Fairfield and Antioch will have the highest rates of population growth. The two cities together will add more than 101,400 new residents. Santa Clara will add 53,050 jobs during the 1995 to 2020 period.
• The most dramatic percentage increase in jobs will occur in medium to small cities--those with an estimated 1995 population of less than 75,000. The Tri-Valley subregional study areas of Dublin, Livermore, and Pleasanton will add 86,570 jobs between 1995 and 2020 (a 107 percent increase over 1995). In 1995, these three subregional study areas had 81,100 jobs. During the forecast period, San Ramon’s subregional employment growth will begin to slow. It will add 26,710 new jobs between 1995 and 2020. This compares to the five-year period 1985 to 1990, when 18,300 jobs were added to San Ramon’s economy.
• The Town of Windsor is forecast to have the greatest percentage increase in jobs between 1995 and 2020 in the Bay Area. Between 1995 and 2020, the expected increase in jobs is 447 percent. The Napa Airport Industrial Area, Brentwood, East Palo Alto, and American Canyon round out the top five subregional study areas in terms of percentage increase in jobs.